I have some work, in an Excel spreadsheet. Hello,
My project involves handicapping horse races.
I currently use an excel spreadsheet to organize my information.
There is one piece of information ithat needs to be analyzed and coverted to probabilities.
This is my performance points figure.
I have a series of performance figures, awarded to contestents for an event.
The number of contestents in each event varies from 4 to 20.
A typical set of inputs for the performence figures might be:
The spread between points varies from one contest to the next.
The higher the figure, the more likely the contestent will be the winner.
On average, the contender ranked highest wins at a rate of about 38% (see insert).
Category Win Second Third
A HORSE 37% 27% 23%
B HORSE 28% 27% 21%
C HORSE 6% 10% 15%
D HORSE 7% 11% 14%
E HORSE 11% 11% 10%
I want a Monte Carlo Sim integrated into my worksheet to help me accurately define probabilities for each contender, by analyzing the performance figures.
My current method for estimating each contenders probability is to simply divide the individual figure by the total sum of points awarded. Obviously not very accurate.
I would appreciate any ideas you might have.
This is a project about solving a question of probabilities.
I have multiple possible outcomes and need to define their probability.
This is why I think a Monte Carlo Simulation would work well.
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Hello Sir, We checked your data entry requirement for your horse races work and we have also experienced of like this work. Please start more discussion and start the work asap. Thanks